Update

Dr. John Campbell
Dr. John Campbell
Published on 22.02.2021

Early Assessment of COVID-19 epidemiology and Vaccine/anti-viral Effectiveness (EAVE II)

https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/10/6/e039097

https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=MC_PC_19075

https://www.ed.ac.uk/usher/eave-ii/key-outputs/scottish-vaccine-roll-out-working-data-suggests

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19107740.coronavirus-scotland-vaccination-linked-substantial-reduction-hospital-admissions/

Public health Scotland

Dataset covering Scottish population of 5.4 million

A unique reference number for every individual

Link datasets, construct electronic cohort

1.2m individuals (22% of the population)

Safe haven data

Fourth week after first dose, reduced risk of hospitalisation

8 December to 15 February

1.14 million vaccines doses

21% per cent of population

Pfizer, down 84% (n = 650,000)

Oxford-AstraZeneca, down 94% (n = 490,000)

Combined reduction in over 80s

Vaccination associated with 81% reduction in hospitalisation risk in the fourth week

UK easing

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56148160

England, schools reopen 8 March

Six from 2 households outside

Care home residents, one regular visitor

Outside area trave, 29th March

Five week gaps

Four conditions

Vaccine programme continues to go to plan

Vaccines reducing hospitalisations and deaths

Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospital admissions

New variants do not fundamentally change the risk of lifting restrictions

Four tests are currently being met

Rapid drop in cases slows down

https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#related-news

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/rapid-drop-in-cases-slows-down

February 19, 2021

Peak of 69,000 daily new cases around the 1st January

Based on data from 14,875 antigen tests

Cases now down by 80%

Current prevalence,1 in 294 people in the UK currently have symptomatic COVID

UK R value is 0.9

England, 0.9

Wales, 1.0

Scotland, 1.0

Highest risk areas in the UK

Lancashire, Blackpool, Blackburn with Darwen, 1 in 277

Greater Manchester, 1 in 287

Liverpool City Region, 1 in 337

Cases rising, 20-39

Cases falling, 60

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